It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism. In some cases this year, they’re projecting remarkable things, like Democrats having ...

You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance ...

Last night, Marist College published a poll showing Democrat Josh Turek leading by 8 points in Iowa’s Senate race. Our Silver Bulletin polling average forecasts a much closer race — with Turek ahead ...

Today, Canadians will head to the polls to decide how to form their next government. Throughout 2023 and 2024, polling suggested the country’s next federal election would be a rout for the ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

We’re approaching Labor Day — which has traditionally been considered the “real” starting point of midterm election campaigns. You’ll often hear a narrative that goes something like this: voters only ...

Yesterday, I complained about how so many pollsters are “herding” by publishing results that are almost an exact tie in a way that is incredibly statistically ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve been predicting that AI would become one of the most salient political issues for quite some time. That hasn’t happened with the general public quite yet — just 1 ...

The “drafts” we’ve periodically conducted for the 2028 Democratic and Republican nominations are popular features with Silver Bulletin readers. No apologies for that. I’m not going to tell you that ...