This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...
Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives ...
Economies may face different challenges during oil supply disruptions depending on whether they primarily import or export ...
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have raised concerns about these technologies’ impact on employment, specifically, the rollout of generative AI models ...
The 2026 National Community Investment Conference in Phoenix brought together community development practitioners, policymakers, banks, Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs), nonprofits ...
Together with CEPR we are hosting a monthly research seminar series Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics (VSME) ...
The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...
The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...
This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Monetary Policy Surprises data capture the exogenous changes in interest rates over tight windows around the monetary policy announcements ...
The slope of the Treasury yield curve is a popular recession predictor with an excellent track record. The two most common alternative measures of the slope typically move together but have diverged ...
Note: This data page will no longer be updated. The latest estimates of pandemic-era excess savings are as of September 2024. Past data will continue to be available on this site. Pandemic-Era Excess ...
The current round of federal funds rate increases is expected to reverse a historically large gap between the real funds rate and the neutral rate at the beginning of the tightening cycle. Financial ...
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